Mongols v Japanese

Hi All, My names Denny and I am a new member to this great group. I don't expect to be able to contribute very much as, quite frankly, most of you guys seem WAY out of my league. But I am very interested and very keen. My main interest is the military side of Japanese history.And I would like to pose a purely hypothetical question, I do hope no one objects. If Kublai Khans invasion force had not been destroyed by the "Divine wind" in 1281. Who and why do you think would have emerged victorious, the Mongols or the Japanese ? I have thought about this a good deal and I think It would have been the Japanese, mainly because of the Mongols not being able to maintain a supply line. On the other hand, apart from a relatively minor clash in 1221, there had been no real warfare in Japan since the Gempei war. Where as the Mongols were battle hardened. However, I am sure this is all very open to debate. Any takers?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

--- Denis Pointing <dponting@...> wrote:

> Hi All, My names Denny and I am a new member to this
> great group. I don't expect to be able to contribute
> very much as, quite frankly, most of you guys seem
> WAY out of my league.

Heh, we talk a good game...seriously, most of us here
are amateurs who read a lot. Feel free to jump in
anytime!

If

> Kublai Khans invasion force had not been destroyed
> by the "Divine wind" in 1281. Who and why do you
> think would have emerged victorious, the Mongols or
> the Japanese ?

Good question.

I have thought about this a good deal

> and I think It would have been the Japanese, mainly
> because of the Mongols not being able to maintain a
> supply line. On the other hand, apart from a
> relatively minor clash in 1221, there had been no
> real warfare in Japan since the Gempei war. Where as
> the Mongols were battle hardened. However, I am sure
> this is all very open to debate. Any takers?

1. Mongol supply lines: The Mongols sure were not
seamen, but neither were the samurai. Apart from a
handful of pirates, most Japanese didn't venture into
the water, and "sea battles", even Dannoura, etc.,
were merely land battles fought on boats. Crash into
the enemy, hop aboard, take his head...not much
seamanship involved (Yeah yeah, tides at Dannoura,
whatever...it was no Trafalgar).

Being as the Mongols relied on Korean and Chinese who
had much more sailing experience than either the
Mongols or the Japanese, I think it's conceivable they
could have maintained their supply lines. If they
could transport supplies 1,000's of miles between
China and Poland, I don't think the Strait of Tsushima
was that difficult for them.

2. Lack of Japanese combat since 1221...

In individual combat, this wasn't a problem. The
Japanese matched up quite well, once they realized
that shouting their lineage to a foe who didn't
understand it was just making them vulnerable to
archers. The problem wasn't so much lack of
experience, it was lack of experience in the KIND of
warfare the Mongols fought. I don't think the army of
Minamoto Yoshitsune would have done well in a pitched
battle against Mongol armies. I really don't think
anyone would have had a chance until the Sengoku
period. Japanese simply didn't fight in organized
formations, reacting to signals, etc., like the
Mongols did. Had the Mongols been able to land in
force and establish a coherent beachhead, the course
of history would be very different. Of course, you
have to look at the fact that much of the "mongol"
army were Korean and Chinese conscripts who had no
desire to be there, and wouldn't have been all that
effective, but I think it's safe to say that a Mongol
army would have had it's way with an equivalent
samurai army in a pitched battle on open terrain.

3. HOWEVER...as Kusunoki Masashige would prove 50
years later, the Japanese could adapt to guerrila
warfare very easily. The Mongols would have found it
very hard to garrison Japan, and wouldn't have ever
had a true hold on it, I believe. Their usual
techniques of razing the main cities would only harden
Japanese resistance against them. Think Mongols =
Russians, Japanese = Afghans.



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I think it would have been a very even battle.Every side had his advantages.It's very difficult to say who would have won the war.On one side the Mongols because there was few cavalry capable of stopping them.On the other side the Mongols would have been defeated because the Japanese had capable commanders and would have won because they would have set many traps for the cavalry.

Edy



Denis Pointing <dponting@...> wrote:Hi All, My names Denny and I am a new member to this great group. I don't expect to be able to contribute very much as, quite frankly, most of you guys seem WAY out of my league. But I am very interested and very keen. My main interest is the military side of Japanese history.And I would like to pose a purely hypothetical question, I do hope no one objects. If Kublai Khans invasion force had not been destroyed by the "Divine wind" in 1281. Who and why do you think would have emerged victorious, the Mongols or the Japanese ? I have thought about this a good deal and I think It would have been the Japanese, mainly because of the Mongols not being able to maintain a supply line. On the other hand, apart from a relatively minor clash in 1221, there had been no real warfare in Japan since the Gempei war. Where as the Mongols were battle hardened. However, I am sure this is all very open to debate. Any takers?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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Eddy



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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Very good point Nate(the Japanese=Afghans,Mongols=Russians).Plus the Mongols living in Japan would have had a very difficult life(cuz they are migrating people,they are not used to cities,the only house they have is the yurt).

Edy


Nate Ledbetter <ltdomer98@...> wrote:
--- Denis Pointing <dponting@...> wrote:

> Hi All, My names Denny and I am a new member to this
> great group. I don't expect to be able to contribute
> very much as, quite frankly, most of you guys seem
> WAY out of my league.

Heh, we talk a good game...seriously, most of us here
are amateurs who read a lot. Feel free to jump in
anytime!

If

> Kublai Khans invasion force had not been destroyed
> by the "Divine wind" in 1281. Who and why do you
> think would have emerged victorious, the Mongols or
> the Japanese ?

Good question.

I have thought about this a good deal

> and I think It would have been the Japanese, mainly
> because of the Mongols not being able to maintain a
> supply line. On the other hand, apart from a
> relatively minor clash in 1221, there had been no
> real warfare in Japan since the Gempei war. Where as
> the Mongols were battle hardened. However, I am sure
> this is all very open to debate. Any takers?

1. Mongol supply lines: The Mongols sure were not
seamen, but neither were the samurai. Apart from a
handful of pirates, most Japanese didn't venture into
the water, and "sea battles", even Dannoura, etc.,
were merely land battles fought on boats. Crash into
the enemy, hop aboard, take his head...not much
seamanship involved (Yeah yeah, tides at Dannoura,
whatever...it was no Trafalgar).

Being as the Mongols relied on Korean and Chinese who
had much more sailing experience than either the
Mongols or the Japanese, I think it's conceivable they
could have maintained their supply lines. If they
could transport supplies 1,000's of miles between
China and Poland, I don't think the Strait of Tsushima
was that difficult for them.

2. Lack of Japanese combat since 1221...

In individual combat, this wasn't a problem. The
Japanese matched up quite well, once they realized
that shouting their lineage to a foe who didn't
understand it was just making them vulnerable to
archers. The problem wasn't so much lack of
experience, it was lack of experience in the KIND of
warfare the Mongols fought. I don't think the army of
Minamoto Yoshitsune would have done well in a pitched
battle against Mongol armies. I really don't think
anyone would have had a chance until the Sengoku
period. Japanese simply didn't fight in organized
formations, reacting to signals, etc., like the
Mongols did. Had the Mongols been able to land in
force and establish a coherent beachhead, the course
of history would be very different. Of course, you
have to look at the fact that much of the "mongol"
army were Korean and Chinese conscripts who had no
desire to be there, and wouldn't have been all that
effective, but I think it's safe to say that a Mongol
army would have had it's way with an equivalent
samurai army in a pitched battle on open terrain.

3. HOWEVER...as Kusunoki Masashige would prove 50
years later, the Japanese could adapt to guerrila
warfare very easily. The Mongols would have found it
very hard to garrison Japan, and wouldn't have ever
had a true hold on it, I believe. Their usual
techniques of razing the main cities would only harden
Japanese resistance against them. Think Mongols =
Russians, Japanese = Afghans.



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Eddy


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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Yes, you raised some really good points, lots to chew over. You really do
have a knack of putting over facts clearly and concisely, do you teach by
any chance? Thanks, Denny.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Nate Ledbetter" <ltdomer98@...>
To: <samuraihistory@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 17, 2004 3:12 AM
Subject: Re: [samuraihistory] Mongols v Japanese


>
> --- Denis Pointing <dponting@...> wrote:
>
> > Hi All, My names Denny and I am a new member to this
> > great group. I don't expect to be able to contribute
> > very much as, quite frankly, most of you guys seem
> > WAY out of my league.
>
> Heh, we talk a good game...seriously, most of us here
> are amateurs who read a lot. Feel free to jump in
> anytime!
>
> If
> > Kublai Khans invasion force had not been destroyed
> > by the "Divine wind" in 1281. Who and why do you
> > think would have emerged victorious, the Mongols or
> > the Japanese ?
>
> Good question.
>
> I have thought about this a good deal
> > and I think It would have been the Japanese, mainly
> > because of the Mongols not being able to maintain a
> > supply line. On the other hand, apart from a
> > relatively minor clash in 1221, there had been no
> > real warfare in Japan since the Gempei war. Where as
> > the Mongols were battle hardened. However, I am sure
> > this is all very open to debate. Any takers?
>
> 1. Mongol supply lines: The Mongols sure were not
> seamen, but neither were the samurai. Apart from a
> handful of pirates, most Japanese didn't venture into
> the water, and "sea battles", even Dannoura, etc.,
> were merely land battles fought on boats. Crash into
> the enemy, hop aboard, take his head...not much
> seamanship involved (Yeah yeah, tides at Dannoura,
> whatever...it was no Trafalgar).
>
> Being as the Mongols relied on Korean and Chinese who
> had much more sailing experience than either the
> Mongols or the Japanese, I think it's conceivable they
> could have maintained their supply lines. If they
> could transport supplies 1,000's of miles between
> China and Poland, I don't think the Strait of Tsushima
> was that difficult for them.
>
> 2. Lack of Japanese combat since 1221...
>
> In individual combat, this wasn't a problem. The
> Japanese matched up quite well, once they realized
> that shouting their lineage to a foe who didn't
> understand it was just making them vulnerable to
> archers. The problem wasn't so much lack of
> experience, it was lack of experience in the KIND of
> warfare the Mongols fought. I don't think the army of
> Minamoto Yoshitsune would have done well in a pitched
> battle against Mongol armies. I really don't think
> anyone would have had a chance until the Sengoku
> period. Japanese simply didn't fight in organized
> formations, reacting to signals, etc., like the
> Mongols did. Had the Mongols been able to land in
> force and establish a coherent beachhead, the course
> of history would be very different. Of course, you
> have to look at the fact that much of the "mongol"
> army were Korean and Chinese conscripts who had no
> desire to be there, and wouldn't have been all that
> effective, but I think it's safe to say that a Mongol
> army would have had it's way with an equivalent
> samurai army in a pitched battle on open terrain.
>
> 3. HOWEVER...as Kusunoki Masashige would prove 50
> years later, the Japanese could adapt to guerrila
> warfare very easily. The Mongols would have found it
> very hard to garrison Japan, and wouldn't have ever
> had a true hold on it, I believe. Their usual
> techniques of razing the main cities would only harden
> Japanese resistance against them. Think Mongols =
> Russians, Japanese = Afghans.
>
>
>
> __________________________________
> Do you Yahoo!?
> New and Improved Yahoo! Mail - Send 10MB messages!
> http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail
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>
>
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>
>
>
>
>

--- Denis Pointing <dponting@...> wrote:

> Yes, you raised some really good points, lots to
> chew over. You really do
> have a knack of putting over facts clearly and
> concisely, do you teach by
> any chance? Thanks, Denny.

*blush* thanks, and no, I'm not a teacher, though I've
done my share of instructing in the Army. I spent two
years as exec officer of a basic training company, and
taught several classes, including history. If you can
explain army history to 17 year olds who barely got
their GED, it makes other things easier. But thanks!
Maybe one day, I'll actually get back to school
myself, get those impressive degrees like Tony, and
teach. Until then, I'll keep living in Tokyo on the
Army's yen. :)


Nate



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The Mongols have had really bad luck when trying to invade Japan a
thunderstorm harassed north Kyushu island in 1274 when the Yuan army
was fighting (first invasion attempt), and again in 1281 a typhoon
hit north Kyushu island while the Yuan soldiers were on board their
ships preparing for a major landing operation (second attempt). In
both instances the Yuan armies suffered severe casualties from these
natural calamities and the invasions were aborted. In my opinion if
not for the "divine winds" the Mongols would of have a good chance of
winning.
Just to give you some figures:

First Invasion:
Yuan army: 40,000; with 900 ships
Japanese army: 10,000

Second Invasion:
Yuan army: 140,000; with 4,400 ships
Japanese army: 40,000

"What ifs" are one of the best parts of history. Should they had succeded...
I can only wonder.

Cheers,

Thiago
-----Mensagem original-----
De: zevlord [mailto:LordZev@...]
Enviada em: terça-feira, 17 de agosto de 2004 23:11
Para: samuraihistory@yahoogroups.com
Assunto: [samuraihistory] Re: Mongols v Japanese


The Mongols have had really bad luck when trying to invade Japan a
thunderstorm harassed north Kyushu island in 1274 when the Yuan army
was fighting (first invasion attempt), and again in 1281 a typhoon
hit north Kyushu island while the Yuan soldiers were on board their
ships preparing for a major landing operation (second attempt). In
both instances the Yuan armies suffered severe casualties from these
natural calamities and the invasions were aborted. In my opinion if
not for the "divine winds" the Mongols would of have a good chance of
winning.
Just to give you some figures:

First Invasion:
Yuan army: 40,000; with 900 ships
Japanese army: 10,000

Second Invasion:
Yuan army: 140,000; with 4,400 ships
Japanese army: 40,000




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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

I think that the Mongols would probably have won the battle but not the war. Though greatly outnumbered it must be remembered that these figures are only the number of samurai meeting the Mongols in northern Kyushu at Hakata bay and not the whole Japanese force. The samurai had better weapons and armour as well as the determination of a people defending their homeland, ( the Mongol army had a large percentage of Chinese and Korean conscripts). Where the samurai lacked was in tactics, but by the second invasion they were fighting much smarter, adapting their tactics to this new enemy.

just my two cents
Dave

----- Original Message -----
From: zevlord
To: samuraihistory@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, August 17, 2004 7:11 PM
Subject: [samuraihistory] Re: Mongols v Japanese


The Mongols have had really bad luck when trying to invade Japan a
thunderstorm harassed north Kyushu island in 1274 when the Yuan army
was fighting (first invasion attempt), and again in 1281 a typhoon
hit north Kyushu island while the Yuan soldiers were on board their
ships preparing for a major landing operation (second attempt). In
both instances the Yuan armies suffered severe casualties from these
natural calamities and the invasions were aborted. In my opinion if
not for the "divine winds" the Mongols would of have a good chance of
winning.
Just to give you some figures:

First Invasion:
Yuan army: 40,000; with 900 ships
Japanese army: 10,000

Second Invasion:
Yuan army: 140,000; with 4,400 ships
Japanese army: 40,000




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